Labour’s Epic Collapse: Approval Ratings Tank and 75% Seat Losses Loom

In July 2024, Labour, led by Keir Starmer, rode a wave of anti-Tory sentiment to a landslide victory, clinching 411 seats and a 174-seat majority. Fast forward to August 2025, and Labour’s approval rating has nosedived to a pathetic -56%, with just 13% of Brits approving and a whopping 69% shaking their heads in disgust. If an election were called today, Labour could lose a jaw-dropping 75% of its seats, plummeting to 100-120 from 411. Feniks Knows Best is here to break down this historic meltdown and why Labour’s stubborn refusal to pivot is digging its own grave.

From Landslide to Landslide Loss: Labour’s Approval Plummet

Labour’s approval rating has crashed harder than a cheap smartphone screen. Starting at 29% approval in July 2024 (YouGov), it’s now a measly 13% by August 2025, with disapproval soaring to 69%—matching the Tories’ pre-2024 election low. Keir Starmer’s personal charm isn’t faring any better, with his favorability tanking to -44% (23% favorable, 67% unfavorable). Even Labour’s 2024 voters are jumping ship, with only 51% still liking Starmer, down from 87% post-election. The party itself? A brutal 65% unfavorable rating, tying its worst-ever YouGov score.

Polls tell a grim story. Labour’s vote share has slumped from 33.7% in July 2024 to 21% in August 2025, trailing Reform UK at 28% and neck-and-neck with the Conservatives at 17%. The Guardian notes this 12.3-point drop in eight months is the worst first-year decline since John Major’s era. Feniks Knows Best calls it: Labour’s honeymoon is officially a horror show.

Election Today? Labour Loses 75% of Seats

If Brits headed to the polls today, Labour would be obliterated. A More in Common poll (August 15-18, 2025) projects Labour clinging to just 112 seats, a loss of 299—roughly 73% of their 411. Electoral Calculus is even bleaker, estimating 100-120 seats based on August 2025 polling. That’s a 75% wipeout, folks! Reform UK could snag 292-339 seats, with Conservatives at 35-53, Liberal Democrats at 77, and SNP at 46. Labour heavyweights like Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, and Wes Streeting are at risk of losing to Reform or independents. A hung parliament looms, with Reform falling 34 seats short of a majority.

Find Out Now’s August 20 poll paints Labour at a dire 18%, with Reform at 33% and Conservatives at 17%. YouGov’s August 10-11 data confirms Labour at 21%, but either way, Starmer’s team is bleeding votes faster than a bad reality show loses viewers.

Why the Collapse? Unpopular Policies and Economic Woes

Labour’s freefall isn’t a mystery—it’s a policy disaster. Early prisoner releases to ease jail overcrowding and slashing winter fuel allowances for pensioners have sparked outrage. These moves, absent from Labour’s 2024 manifesto, have alienated working-class and older voters. Add rising inflation and stagnant living standards, and it’s no surprise only 16% trusted Labour’s economic handling by December 2024, down from 29% in July 2024. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ “£22bn hole” excuse hasn’t convinced anyone, with 45% of Brits more worried about the economy post-October 2024 Spending Review.

Feniks Knows Best sees through the spin: Labour’s policies are bombing, and voters are done with the excuses.

Starmer’s Stubborn Stance: No Pivot, No Hope

Here’s where Labour really shoots itself in the foot: Starmer’s refusal to change course. Clinging to a centrist playbook to keep “red wall” voters, Labour doubles down on toxic policies like the winter fuel cuts, despite 120+ Labour MPs threatening rebellion in June 2025. X posts scream voter frustration, with Labour insisting it has a mandate for moves not even in its manifesto. Progressive ideas like a wealth tax or closer EU ties—polls show these could win back voters—are ignored, leaving Labour bleeding support to Liberal Democrats (13-16%), Greens (8-10%), and Reform UK (28-33%).Starmer’s stuck in a rut, and it’s costing Labour everything.

Reform UK’s Rise and Labour’s Fractured Base

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is eating Labour’s lunch, polling at 28-33% and projected to win 292-339 seats. They’re stealing red wall voters and dominating among 45-64 and 65+ age groups. Labour’s 2024 voter coalition is splintering: 10% to Lib Dems, 10% to Reform, 5-10% to Greens. The Conservatives, at 17-19%, haven’t fully capitalized, but Reform’s surge could reshape UK politics. Labour’s failure to address immigration or living costs is handing Farage the keys to the red wall.

Can Labour Bounce Back?

With the next election not due until August 2029, Labour has time—but not much. Polling guru Luke Tryl calls Labour’s start “disappointing,” with winter fuel cuts landing like a lead balloon. To avoid losing 75% of their seats, Labour needs bold moves: tackle cost of living, rethink immigration, and ditch the tone-deaf policies. Starmer’s refusal to pivot risks a Reform-led parliament or a chaotic hung one. Feniks Knows Best isn’t holding its breath—Labour’s got to wake up, or it’s game over.

Reference List

1. YouGov. (2025, August 9-11). Government Approval Rating Survey. Link
2. The Guardian. (2025, March 27). Labour’s Polling Decline Worst Since John Major. Link
3. More in Common. (2025, August 15-18). General Election Projection Poll. Link
4. Electoral Calculus. (2025, August). Seat Projections Based on Polling Averages. Link
5. Find Out Now. (2025, August 20). UK Voting Intention Poll. Link
6. The Sunday Times. (2025, August 18). Labour Faces Historic Seat Losses. Link
7. The Independent. (2025, August 10). Starmer’s Approval Rating Hits Record Low. Link
8. Statista. (2025, August). UK Party Vote Share Trends. Link
9. X Post. (2025, August 19). Labour Approval Rating Falls to -56%. Link
10. X Post. (2025, August 20). Find Out Now Poll: Labour at 18%, Reform at 33%. Link